Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     98.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  35.4  30.5  26.5  29.4  23.2  27.4  17.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0  10.0  52.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 149.3 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  34.0  26.0  29.0  22.0  20.0  19.0  27.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -9.0  -4.0  -9.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.2%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%       10.4%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       19.5%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP202025 250831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     98.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  35.4  30.5  26.5  29.4  23.2  27.4  17.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -9.0  -4.0  -9.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%