Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     96.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  25.1  18.4  21.5  19.9  16.8  16.1  12.3  U  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  15.2  23.4  31.6  48.0  58.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 140.1 137.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  14.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  20.0   6.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  77.0  69.0  73.0  70.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        9.7%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       21.4%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        8.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%       11.8%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        9.6%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       33.8%       18.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP202025 250831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     96.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  25.1  18.4  21.5  19.9  16.8  16.1  12.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  77.0  69.0  73.0  70.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%