Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     95.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  21.0  19.1  23.6  18.0  26.5  18.7  23.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  63.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        149.3 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  22.0  19.0  26.0  29.0  28.0  29.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -8.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       23.8%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%       10.6%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        9.5%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       49.2%       26.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%       29.3%       15.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%       25.2%       19.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%       25.0%       14.9%
 65kt / 72h       15.0%       56.8%       35.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP202025 250831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     95.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  21.0  19.1  23.6  18.0  26.5  18.7  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -8.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%