Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     93.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  25.0  25.0  16.5  16.7  16.2  13.0  14.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 140.1 125.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  19.0  23.0  16.0  19.0   2.0  28.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  76.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       28.3%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%       13.5%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       12.3%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        8.1%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       56.4%       31.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       37.2%       20.5%
 55kt / 48h       20.2%        8.7%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.7%       34.4%       21.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.2%       59.5%       37.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP202025 250901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     93.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  25.0  25.0  16.5  16.7  16.2  13.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  76.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%