Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    165.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  23.0  17.6  17.7  18.3  14.7  14.4  16.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  58.0  59.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 127.4 114.4 114.4 112.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  22.0  15.0  29.0  23.0  20.0  33.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  74.0  73.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       26.4%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%       12.0%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       10.6%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.9%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       44.1%       23.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%       25.4%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%        5.9%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%       18.9%       12.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%       31.6%       18.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 WP202025 250901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    165.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  23.0  17.6  17.7  18.3  14.7  14.4  16.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  74.0  73.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%