Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    157.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  19.4  15.8  13.3  16.6  12.8  18.4  15.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  59.0  19.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 129.4 106.1 104.6 112.7 112.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   6.0  17.0  18.0  14.0  42.0  19.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  74.0  70.0  79.0  77.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       15.5%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       24.4%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%       11.4%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.7%        4.7%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        8.8%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%       16.1%        9.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP202025 250901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    157.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  19.4  15.8  13.3  16.6  12.8  18.4  15.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  74.0  70.0  79.0  77.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%