Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.0  15.0  19.1  17.1  15.3  21.8  16.7  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  54.0  36.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 125.7 113.5 102.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  31.0  31.0  28.0  44.0  40.0  30.0  48.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  78.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%       10.2%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       22.1%       59.8%       41.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       45.8%       27.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       45.8%       27.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       37.3%       18.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%       77.2%       46.8%
 55kt / 36h       11.1%       65.8%       38.4%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%       11.2%       17.3%
 70kt / 48h       11.2%       53.8%       32.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       59.4%       36.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP202025 250901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.0  15.0  19.1  17.1  15.3  21.8  16.7  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  78.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%