Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202025 250902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    186.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.2  17.8  20.5  22.6  24.1  21.1  22.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 127.9 127.9 113.5  93.0  85.8  77.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  29.0  33.0  33.0  58.0  38.0  50.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  80.0  74.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0   2.0  14.0  -2.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        6.2%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       38.8%       24.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       24.3%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       24.3%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       17.2%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       47.9%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%       30.1%       16.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%        3.8%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%       14.4%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%       14.3%        7.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP202025 250902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    186.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.2  17.8  20.5  22.6  24.1  21.1  22.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  80.0  74.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0   2.0  14.0  -2.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%