Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212025 250903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  21.7  22.2  26.1  26.9  34.1  23.7  23.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  55.0  51.0  29.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 106.6  97.7 110.5  86.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  48.0  47.0  37.0  46.0  20.0 -17.0 -28.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  49.0  36.0  35.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   7.0  11.0   8.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        6.1%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       31.9%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       15.0%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       15.0%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       15.0%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       28.2%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%       12.0%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%        3.8%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        3.7%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        4.2%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP212025 250903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  21.7  22.2  26.1  26.9  34.1  23.7  23.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  49.0  36.0  35.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   7.0  11.0   8.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%