Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212025 250903 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 131.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.2 19.2 21.4 25.2 37.2 45.4 38.4 41.6 F N N N U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 49.0 36.0 33.0 4.0 36.0 18.0 12.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 132.0 112.4 108.5 108.5 112.4 112.4 F F F N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 41.0 31.0 26.0 70.0 37.0 -28.0 -25.0 N N N U N N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 48.0 39.0 37.0 36.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 13.0 14.0 19.0 19.0 1.0 2.0 N N U U VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 4.6% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 6.6% 22.2% 14.4% 30kt / 24h 3.4% 9.7% 6.6% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 8.7% 5.7% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 8.5% 4.3% 45kt / 36h 3.0% 18.4% 10.7% 55kt / 36h 1.7% 6.5% 4.1% 55kt / 48h 9.5% 2.0% 5.7% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 1.5% 1.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 WP212025 250903 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 131.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.2 19.2 21.4 25.2 37.2 45.4 38.4 41.6 U N N N F VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 48.0 39.0 37.0 36.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 13.0 14.0 19.0 19.0 1.0 2.0 N N F F VF VF N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%