Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212025 250904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  20.7  23.3  29.9  42.6  36.4  39.4  34.9  F  N  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  36.0  34.0  23.0   4.0  33.0  17.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 115.7 117.9 107.4  91.0 107.4 111.5 107.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  39.0  39.0  58.0  36.0   5.0 -36.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  43.0  37.0  32.0  34.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  15.0  11.0   6.0  17.0   0.0  -5.0   1.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        4.4%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       17.5%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        7.9%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        7.2%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.3%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        9.9%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        1.2%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 WP212025 250904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  20.7  23.3  29.9  42.6  36.4  39.4  34.9  N  N  N  N VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  43.0  37.0  32.0  34.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  15.0  11.0   6.0  17.0   0.0  -5.0   1.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%