Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212025 250904 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 131.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 151.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.2 21.8 30.4 36.5 38.7 36.9 42.1 28.7 N N N U U U VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 34.0 25.0 4.0 36.0 18.0 13.0 12.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 105.5 109.4 101.6 103.5 107.4 109.4 111.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 35.0 58.0 35.0 13.0 -14.0 -36.0 -30.0 N N N N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 57.0 50.0 41.0 35.0 34.0 33.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 12.0 7.0 9.0 12.0 -7.0 -2.0 0.0 N U N U U F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 2.2% 1.8% 25kt / 24h 1.3% 6.4% 3.9% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 2.4% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 1.9% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.7% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 2.6% 0.5% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.58 WP212025 250904 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 131.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 151.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.2 21.8 30.4 36.5 38.7 36.9 42.1 28.7 N N N F F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 57.0 50.0 41.0 35.0 34.0 33.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 12.0 7.0 9.0 12.0 -7.0 -2.0 0.0 N F N F F U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%