Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212025 250904 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 151.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 33.7 37.4 39.6 40.0 37.9 31.2 36.3 N U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 17.0 12.0 0.0 30.0 17.0 12.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.5 94.4 101.6 92.7 83.0 107.4 109.4 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 20.0 14.0 -5.0 0.0 -28.0 -15.0 -35.0 U U U U U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 47.0 39.0 33.0 33.0 36.0 39.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 -7.0 -3.0 1.0 U U U U N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.2% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 WP212025 250904 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.