Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212025 250905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.4  35.2  31.2  32.3  33.7  32.7  27.9  27.7 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0   6.0  10.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  77.7  72.7  69.6  71.1  69.6  60.8  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  12.0 -25.0 -21.0 -29.0 -11.0 -17.0  -5.0  N  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  34.0  32.0  35.0  37.0  42.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -7.0 -24.0 -39.0 -47.0 -25.0  -1.0  17.0  N  F VF VF VF VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 WP212025 250905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.