Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212025 250907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80    159.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  20.9  22.2  26.2  38.2  38.9  46.1  50.4  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.8  56.7  53.2  41.8  39.1  30.4  31.2  24.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -50.0 -28.0   0.0 -10.0 -11.0   2.0 -32.0  -5.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   28.0  31.0  34.0  37.0  45.0  49.0  47.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -30.0 -30.0 -19.0 -20.0 -13.0   4.0  10.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.86

 WP212025 250907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80    159.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.