Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212025 250908 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 169.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 30.9 34.2 37.3 23.9 23.0 14.8 16.2 U U U U N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.1 50.0 48.3 40.4 48.3 53.7 59.8 73.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 10.0 -22.0 -55.0 2.0 0.0 -8.0 -27.0 U U VU VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 37.0 33.0 34.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -11.0 2.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.08 WP212025 250908 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 169.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.