Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212025 250908 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.80 170.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.7 37.5 41.2 37.7 44.6 46.8 55.6 63.0 N U VU U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.2 40.4 40.4 41.2 40.4 46.6 54.7 57.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 -31.0 -51.0 -28.0 -17.0 -11.0 -61.0 -57.0 U VU VU VU U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 44.0 44.0 46.0 51.0 54.0 48.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 2.0 -11.0 2.0 F F N U N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.26 WP212025 250908 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.80 170.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.