Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.9  13.8  14.1  20.7  26.8  22.4  28.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  59.0  56.0  48.0  39.0  36.0  29.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  77.0  56.0  80.0  62.0  11.0  34.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  78.0  80.0  81.0  86.0  87.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        6.4%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       28.5%       54.3%       41.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       33.7%       24.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       33.7%       21.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       33.7%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.5%       67.5%       48.0%
 55kt / 36h       18.7%       47.7%       33.2%
 55kt / 48h       32.2%       38.5%       35.3%
 70kt / 48h       16.6%       36.4%       26.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%       46.9%       29.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP222025 250906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.9  13.8  14.1  20.7  26.8  22.4  28.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  78.0  80.0  81.0  86.0  87.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%