Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.1  15.1  11.0  24.6  21.1  28.8  31.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  59.0  50.0  43.0  37.0  42.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  57.0  81.0  67.0  61.0  37.0  38.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  79.0  75.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        4.7%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       44.0%       31.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       25.1%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       25.1%       15.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       25.1%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       47.5%       32.5%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%       26.1%       18.1%
 55kt / 48h       24.8%       26.9%       25.8%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       20.8%       15.9%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%       32.3%       22.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP222025 250906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.1  15.1  11.0  24.6  21.1  28.8  31.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  79.0  75.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%