Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  15.5  11.1  22.2  26.4  22.5  27.7  30.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  50.0  43.0  39.0  34.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 117.3 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  81.0  67.0  62.0  11.0  34.0  43.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  86.0  86.0  89.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.9%       12.7%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h       34.1%       57.9%       46.0%
 30kt / 24h       21.3%       44.4%       32.8%
 35kt / 24h       13.5%       44.4%       28.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.3%       44.4%       26.8%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%       53.2%       39.6%
 55kt / 36h       15.9%       32.0%       23.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.7%       29.8%       24.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%       21.9%       14.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%       23.1%       13.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 WP222025 250906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  15.5  11.1  22.2  26.4  22.5  27.7  30.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  86.0  86.0  89.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%