Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  15.7  21.1  27.7  23.4  30.5  33.1  36.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  47.0  41.0  37.0  40.0  41.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  53.0  48.0  43.0  -8.0  11.0  40.0  34.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  76.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0   3.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%       11.1%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.7%       44.9%       35.3%
 30kt / 24h       16.7%       30.7%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.5%       30.7%       21.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       30.7%       18.5%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%       37.3%       26.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%       18.5%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%       16.9%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        9.6%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%       10.5%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP222025 250907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  15.7  21.1  27.7  23.4  30.5  33.1  36.6  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  76.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0   3.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%