Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  20.3  26.3  24.9  25.2  30.6  37.5  38.7  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  40.0  37.0  36.0  29.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 112.3 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  48.0  43.0  -3.0  22.0  39.0  30.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -7.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.5%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       19.8%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        9.9%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        9.7%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        9.7%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       12.6%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        4.0%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        5.9%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 WP222025 250907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  20.3  26.3  24.9  25.2  30.6  37.5  38.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -7.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%