Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222025 250907 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 113.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.1 26.8 29.2 22.4 27.6 31.5 41.6 36.5 N N N N N U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 39.0 36.0 26.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 109.6 107.3 105.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 31.0 12.0 41.0 0.0 26.0 36.0 0.0 N N U N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 89.0 86.0 90.0 87.0 F F F F VF F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.0% 5.6% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 11.8% 24.7% 18.3% 30kt / 24h 8.2% 14.7% 11.4% 35kt / 24h 7.1% 14.7% 10.9% 40kt / 24h 1.5% 14.7% 8.1% 45kt / 36h 5.8% 13.1% 9.4% 55kt / 36h 2.4% 4.5% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 4.9% 2.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 WP222025 250907 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 113.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.1 26.8 29.2 22.4 27.6 31.5 41.6 36.5 N N N N N N VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 89.0 86.0 90.0 87.0 U U U U VU U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%