Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222025 250907 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 113.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 29.2 20.2 25.9 30.5 37.4 38.4 41.8 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 34.0 30.0 15.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 99.6 99.6 99.6 97.3 82.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 12.0 42.0 41.0 25.0 14.0 17.0 -18.0 N U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 80.0 81.0 86.0 89.0 90.0 87.0 87.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 -7.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 F F N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 34.1% 22.5% 28.3% 25kt / 24h 41.4% 56.4% 48.9% 30kt / 24h 35.6% 51.8% 43.7% 35kt / 24h 35.6% 51.8% 43.7% 40kt / 24h 18.0% 51.2% 34.6% 45kt / 36h 16.3% 34.3% 25.3% 55kt / 36h 7.5% 17.7% 12.6% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 9.6% 4.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 4.2% 2.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.76 WP222025 250907 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 113.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 29.2 20.2 25.9 30.5 37.4 38.4 41.8 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 80.0 81.0 86.0 89.0 90.0 87.0 87.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 -7.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 U U N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%