Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  19.7  20.4  21.9  28.3  36.7  33.2  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  92.3  92.3  94.6  79.4  77.4  77.4  77.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  42.0  30.0  13.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.1%       29.8%       38.4%
 25kt / 24h       48.9%       60.1%       54.5%
 30kt / 24h       48.9%       58.8%       53.8%
 35kt / 24h       48.9%       58.8%       53.8%
 40kt / 24h       20.9%       58.8%       39.8%
 45kt / 36h       21.0%       33.9%       27.5%
 55kt / 36h       12.2%       18.2%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        6.6%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP222025 250908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  19.7  20.4  21.9  28.3  36.7  33.2  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%