Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  18.7  22.5  19.1  32.5  31.8  38.8  31.6  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.3  84.4  73.0  64.3  56.5  48.0  35.9  25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  36.0  27.0  11.0  14.0   1.0  29.0  26.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  -5.0   3.0   6.0  14.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        4.8%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       10.4%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        6.4%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        5.7%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 WP222025 250908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  18.7  22.5  19.1  32.5  31.8  38.8  31.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  -5.0   3.0   6.0  14.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%