Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  24.0  27.6  31.1  37.8  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  26.0   8.0  20.0 -25.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  89.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  F VF  F VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 WP222025 250908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  24.0  27.6  31.1  37.8  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  89.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  U VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%