Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222025 250908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  26.8  28.5  30.2  33.1  40.0  46.6  49.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         93.0  93.0  84.3  84.3  68.0  61.7  55.9  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   9.0  23.0   1.0  27.0 -16.0  36.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  86.0  89.0  84.0  88.0  80.0  74.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  16.0  20.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.82

 WP222025 250908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.