Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222025 250909 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 21.9 22.9 26.0 28.5 37.0 29.2 30.4 N N N N N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 119.4 108.0 108.0 108.0 99.3 90.0 76.7 70.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 18.0 13.0 18.0 -3.0 35.0 15.0 -1.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.0 78.0 70.0 55.0 F F F F F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 10.0 20.0 6.0 N N N N N U VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.14 WP222025 250909 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.