Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222025 250909 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 32.1 32.3 29.5 37.3 38.3 35.4 40.7 N U U N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 113.0 113.0 104.3 104.3 88.0 81.7 75.9 69.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 14.0 2.0 -8.0 1.0 20.0 8.0 -37.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 82.0 82.0 81.0 81.0 72.0 64.0 48.0 F F F F F N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 4.0 9.0 13.0 17.0 13.0 6.0 N N N U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 WP222025 250909 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.