Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222025 250909 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 34.3 34.6 31.2 40.0 29.6 26.6 29.6 N U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 118.0 118.0 118.0 109.3 100.0 93.0 86.7 86.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 15.0 17.0 21.0 15.0 24.0 2.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 79.0 79.0 80.0 75.0 71.0 57.0 F F F F F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 9.0 18.0 5.0 0.0 N N N N U VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 1.5% 0.3% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.80 WP222025 250909 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.