Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  16.7  16.4  13.2  16.6  12.2  10.7  11.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  94.0  94.0  96.0  87.0  71.0  64.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  37.0  37.0  55.0  38.0   5.0  15.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  82.0  81.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        7.2%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       28.0%       55.8%       41.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       35.4%       24.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       33.7%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       31.2%       16.1%
 45kt / 36h       27.0%       71.1%       49.0%
 55kt / 36h       21.8%       54.2%       38.0%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       56.7%       53.1%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       56.1%       41.3%
 65kt / 72h       59.4%       81.8%       70.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP232025 250916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  16.7  16.4  13.2  16.6  12.2  10.7  11.4  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  82.0  81.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%