Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  18.5  14.2  22.2  13.4  13.3   8.7  10.4  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  94.0  92.0  89.0  72.0  64.0  57.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  31.0  51.0  46.0  24.0   2.0  14.0  26.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        9.6%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       32.2%       56.6%       44.4%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       37.4%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h       11.6%       36.8%       24.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       34.3%       18.7%
 45kt / 36h       32.0%       72.7%       52.3%
 55kt / 36h       25.3%       57.7%       41.5%
 55kt / 48h       47.4%       53.3%       50.4%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       53.2%       39.2%
 65kt / 72h       42.7%       76.1%       59.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP232025 250916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  18.5  14.2  22.2  13.4  13.3   8.7  10.4  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%