Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  17.4  17.6  21.1   9.2   9.3  10.4   9.1  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  94.0  85.0  79.0  69.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  53.0  67.0  44.0 -10.0  14.0  42.0  30.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  79.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.9%       30.7%       29.8%
 25kt / 24h       60.5%       76.5%       68.5%
 30kt / 24h       46.4%       69.1%       57.8%
 35kt / 24h       39.7%       69.1%       54.4%
 40kt / 24h       21.2%       68.0%       44.6%
 45kt / 36h       51.6%       83.0%       67.3%
 55kt / 36h       39.5%       74.5%       57.0%
 55kt / 48h       48.0%       67.3%       57.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       62.3%       43.7%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       74.6%       54.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP232025 250916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  17.4  17.6  21.1   9.2   9.3  10.4   9.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  79.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%