Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.3  16.0   7.0  10.0   7.7   9.5   9.4  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  82.0  76.0  70.0  51.0  46.0  34.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 127.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  45.0  48.0  27.0  19.0  15.0  40.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        4.9%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       46.0%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       28.9%       19.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       26.9%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       25.1%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.3%       60.3%       41.3%
 55kt / 36h       17.0%       42.1%       29.6%
 55kt / 48h       45.1%       53.0%       49.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       43.0%       34.1%
 65kt / 72h       42.8%       68.0%       55.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP232025 250917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.3  16.0   7.0  10.0   7.7   9.5   9.4  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%