Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  14.5   7.9  10.2   8.5  11.1   9.6   6.7  F  F VF  F  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  73.0  64.0  56.0  44.0  29.0  23.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 127.3 112.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  49.0  26.0  -5.0  27.0  44.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       18.2%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        9.3%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        7.3%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.2%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       22.4%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        9.1%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%       23.7%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h       11.3%        9.9%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       33.0%       33.0%       33.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP232025 250917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  14.5   7.9  10.2   8.5  11.1   9.6   6.7  N  U VU  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%