Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  10.3  12.8  15.0  13.9   8.8  13.0  13.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  71.0  61.0  54.0  44.0  30.0  24.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 130.1 117.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  19.0   4.0  15.0  29.0  40.0  39.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  10.0  -9.0  10.0   1.0   2.0  -4.0  N  N  U  F  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       17.8%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        7.5%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.9%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       28.0%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       12.1%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       29.9%       24.0%       26.9%
 70kt / 48h       16.1%       14.4%       15.2%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%       37.8%       33.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP232025 250917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  10.3  12.8  15.0  13.9   8.8  13.0  13.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  10.0  -9.0  10.0   1.0   2.0  -4.0  N  N  F  U  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%