Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  10.1  10.6   7.6  12.2  11.0   9.4  12.5  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  65.0  54.0  50.0  36.0  24.0  18.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 132.3 132.3 117.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  12.0  15.0  32.0  35.0  25.0  21.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       30.2%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%       15.6%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       13.3%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       12.4%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       43.4%       26.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%       23.3%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       27.6%       32.4%       30.0%
 70kt / 48h       14.9%       22.7%       18.8%
 65kt / 72h       22.8%       43.9%       33.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 WP232025 250917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  10.1  10.6   7.6  12.2  11.0   9.4  12.5  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%