Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6   8.4   9.6  10.8  11.2  10.3  12.1  12.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  53.0  47.0  35.0  28.0  23.0  14.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 125.1 127.3 127.3 110.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0 -17.0   5.0   1.0  48.0  -2.0  -1.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        9.0%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.6%       50.6%       34.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       33.8%       22.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       32.9%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       32.8%       17.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.9%       64.6%       42.2%
 55kt / 36h       16.0%       47.9%       31.9%
 55kt / 48h       32.9%       43.4%       38.1%
 70kt / 48h       18.9%       39.5%       29.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%       43.6%       26.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 WP232025 250918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6   8.4   9.6  10.8  11.2  10.3  12.1  12.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%