Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  11.0  11.7  15.6   7.7  14.3  14.1  16.5  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  47.0  43.0  37.0  26.0  22.0   6.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 132.0 125.1 122.9 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   5.0   1.0  51.0  29.0   6.0 -20.0 -22.0  U  U  U  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        6.1%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       11.8%       37.4%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       21.3%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       21.3%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       21.3%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       15.5%       52.4%       34.0%
 55kt / 36h       12.2%       33.7%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h       24.1%       31.9%       28.0%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%       26.1%       19.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%       33.8%       20.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 WP232025 250918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  11.0  11.7  15.6   7.7  14.3  14.1  16.5  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%