Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  11.7  16.0  11.6   9.6  13.0  13.3  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  43.0  37.0  36.0  31.0  28.0  26.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 127.0 120.1 117.9 130.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   1.0  51.0  48.0  -2.0  -1.0 -29.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%       10.1%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       49.2%       33.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       34.5%       22.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       34.5%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       34.5%       18.6%
 45kt / 36h       21.7%       61.2%       41.4%
 55kt / 36h       16.4%       45.0%       30.7%
 55kt / 48h       21.7%       39.6%       30.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%       30.8%       20.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       39.3%       23.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP232025 250918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  11.7  16.0  11.6   9.6  13.0  13.3  12.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%