Rapid Intensification Guidance WP232025 250918 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 116.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.5 13.1 11.1 7.7 13.9 11.8 16.4 12.5 F F F VF F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 33.0 28.0 27.0 23.0 22.0 9.0 24.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 122.0 122.0 117.3 117.3 117.3 112.9 112.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 52.0 49.0 29.0 6.0 -20.0 -22.0 5.0 U N N N U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 71.0 67.0 66.0 N N N N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 7.0 1.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.3% 19.1% 15.2% 25kt / 24h 34.0% 65.7% 49.8% 30kt / 24h 21.8% 57.0% 39.4% 35kt / 24h 19.4% 57.0% 38.2% 40kt / 24h 7.3% 57.0% 32.2% 45kt / 36h 28.5% 71.0% 49.7% 55kt / 36h 22.0% 58.2% 40.1% 55kt / 48h 22.6% 44.4% 33.5% 70kt / 48h 10.9% 38.9% 24.9% 65kt / 72h 4.5% 38.3% 21.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 WP232025 250918 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 116.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.5 13.1 11.1 7.7 13.9 11.8 16.4 12.5 U U U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 71.0 67.0 66.0 N N N N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 7.0 1.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%