Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  12.8  13.2  13.4  16.8  12.4  11.4  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  16.0  13.0  21.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 115.1 115.1 117.3 115.1 112.9 115.1 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  45.0   8.0 -14.0  15.0   1.0   2.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  82.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        5.6%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       31.8%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       21.2%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       20.7%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       18.6%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       34.6%       20.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       19.1%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       17.5%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%       11.2%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%       20.0%       10.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 WP232025 250919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  12.8  13.2  13.4  16.8  12.4  11.4  12.8  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  82.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%