Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.2  13.3  13.7  13.5   9.2  14.0  13.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  23.0  23.0   9.0  16.0  26.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 122.9 122.9 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0   8.0 -14.0  23.0   4.0  -7.0  22.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.9%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        6.8%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        4.7%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%       10.5%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 WP232025 250919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.2  13.3  13.7  13.5   9.2  14.0  13.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%