Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  13.1  14.1  16.5  13.0  10.8  12.3  12.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  14.0   7.0   2.0  16.0  21.0  36.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 132.3 132.3 130.1 127.9 130.1 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -14.0  23.0  14.0   1.0   3.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  75.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        3.0%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        9.0%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP232025 250919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  13.1  14.1  16.5  13.0  10.8  12.3  12.3  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  75.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%