Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.6  17.5  15.6   9.8  13.9  12.5  12.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   7.0  15.0   9.0  23.0  35.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.1 130.1 127.9 125.7 125.7 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  24.0 -11.0 -28.0  -8.0  33.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.2%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        5.7%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        3.7%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%       17.3%       11.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 WP232025 250920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.6  17.5  15.6   9.8  13.9  12.5  12.5  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%