Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.3  15.5  10.9  16.5  15.2  27.3  30.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  15.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  25.0  40.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        132.9 132.9 132.9 130.7 132.9 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -15.0 -15.0 -13.0  15.0  18.0  14.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  -3.0   1.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.8%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        3.4%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        7.9%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 WP232025 250920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.3  15.5  10.9  16.5  15.2  27.3  30.8  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  -3.0   1.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%