Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  14.6  10.8  11.8  13.6  16.4  13.8  17.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.9 135.7 135.7 135.7 123.5 137.9 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -22.0 -22.0   6.0  24.0  25.0   5.0  16.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  69.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  73.0  71.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   9.0  11.0   5.0   6.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.0%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       13.1%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        4.6%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        1.7%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        4.3%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%       14.3%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 WP232025 250920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  14.6  10.8  11.8  13.6  16.4  13.8  17.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  69.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  73.0  71.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   9.0  11.0   5.0   6.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%