Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232025 250921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  13.0  13.1  15.2  14.0  18.1  23.1  29.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.5  22.0  15.0   8.0   1.0   3.7   3.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.7 135.7 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -19.0  -2.0  26.0  22.0   6.0  32.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   8.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.8%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       15.5%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        6.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        1.1%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        5.4%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%       11.6%        6.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 WP232025 250921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  13.0  13.1  15.2  14.0  18.1  23.1  29.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   8.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%