Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  19.2  13.9  18.2  13.6  19.6  13.9  12.9  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 115.0 114.0 115.0 115.0 107.0  97.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  52.0  75.0  36.0  69.0  21.0  69.0 -16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        9.0%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       41.9%       61.3%       51.6%
 30kt / 24h       23.6%       40.2%       31.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.7%       39.1%       26.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       36.8%       20.9%
 45kt / 36h       45.8%       80.1%       63.0%
 55kt / 36h       35.9%       66.5%       51.2%
 55kt / 48h       44.0%       34.9%       39.5%
 70kt / 48h       34.9%       63.7%       49.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       85.4%       74.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP242025 250918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  19.2  13.9  18.2  13.6  19.6  13.9  12.9  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%